Tipping Point paints a nice picture, but...

More timely, and slightly more contentious is this tidbit snagged from Scott Monty.

He points to new research from Columbia University which "shows that [influencers] primarily have an impact only on the small number of people they have interaction with."  He goes on to talk about the Forest Fire analogy.  The idea that it's not the size of the spark, but rather the conditions of the forest.  Is it ready for an epidemic blaze?

I've often wondered about the ability of a group of influencers to trigger viral growth.  The Forest Fire analogy points us back to the conditions that better enable velocity.  And it potentially puts influencers back as a component of a larger campaign/seeding strategy.

Made me stop and ponder the obstacles to any social/engagement/word-of-mouth/participation campaign

   
• Physical:  Giving 300 or 3000 sneakers away to some teens isn't likely to go past the tipping point as they are unlikely to pass their sneakers along and they may not have a vehicle for self-publishing the event.  Giving out a dozen cameras to bloggers however, is a different story.  The idea of the physical highlights how its sometimes easier to share an idea, file or service.
   
• Technical:  This one is tied into the physical.  Yet so many campaigns stumble because they deploy their media/idea in a format that is difficult or outright impossible to share.  So it's worth mentioning.
   
• Social/Cultural:  The groups we are members of (implicit and explicit) affect our outlook and our actions.  ie: there are those we just assume we are members of: health nut, music styles, urban/suburban.  And there are those who we explicitly choose: nike, religion, amex platinum, etc.  And let's not forget the rest of the world.  We are a minority in the Western world.  And each culture defines our use of technology [Ursula Franklin].
   
• Psych:  The decision to share something continues to fascinate and amaze me.  We intrinisically desire to share things, but which items, at what times and in what situations?  So many intriguing variables that are a bit of a red herring.  In the right context, it's as if it's all thrown out the window and a person is motivated to share something as quickly and widely as possible.
   
• ??

Certainly not a comprehensive list.  Or even an authoritative one.  Wade in!  The water's nice in here!  And I haven't peed in it for at least an hour...

Image source:  Mixmaster

Tags: Tipping Point, Viral Growth, Epidemic, Influencers

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